Policy-Making for Identifying and Analyzing the Key Drivers Shaping the Future of Affordable Housing in District 18 of Tehran

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and the continuous growth of cities have introduced new dimensions to urban challenges, making the management and guidance of urban development and the organization of cities and their surrounding areas increasingly important. In this context, effective policy approaches and stakeholder participation play a crucial role in improving human settlements and promoting sustainable urban development. The present study aimed to identify and analyze the key drivers shaping the future of affordable housing in District 18 of Tehran. Using an environmental scanning approach, the study examined the factors influencing the future of affordable housing. Environmental scanning is considered one of the fundamental stages in strategic planning and futures studies, relying on various data collection methods, including online database searches, expert interviews, the Delphi technique, documentary analysis, and the review of leading scholars' perspectives. The collected information served as the primary input for the foresight process. Furthermore, the PESTLE framework was employed to analyze the influence of political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors on the future of affordable housing. The findings identified 32 key drivers shaping the future of affordable housing in District 18 of Tehran toward the 2041 horizon (Iranian year 1420). These drivers were classified across local, national, and transnational levels and categorized within both sectoral and cross-sectoral dimensions of the housing system. The results provide a strategic foundation for evidence-based policymaking and long-term planning to promote affordable housing and sustainable urban development.